30 November 2011

Meet the GFSx

This is one of my favorite forecast models, it's called the GFSx.  That stands for something.  The G probably means Graphical.  And the F probably means Forecast.  But I can't recall what the S and the x stand for.  Doesn't really matter.  And I'm not inclined to go Google it right now.  What does matter is that I think this forecast model is one of the simplest to view and understand.  So I go to it a lot... like everyday, and often several times a day (they run a mid-day update most days), this time of the year.

What we're looking at here is an animation of the 9-panel 10-day Sea Level Pressure and Precip Forecast.  The GFSx does lots of different forecasts.  According to Unisys, this one, "The sea level pressure and precipitation forecast chart includes three parameters: sea level pressure (cyan lines), 1000-500 mb thickness (brown dotted lines, 5100, 5400, 5700 solid lines) and quantitative precipitation (color contours)."

The blue lines are wind.  The closer together they get the more wind is headed our way.  Now watch the purple blobs, that's our snow!  Watch it turn to blue over central AZ on Saturday, that's even more intense weather.  WARNING: Each run of the GFSx has pushed this Saturday feature a little more to the east toward NM, but for now it's still within range of us, too.

But the bottom line is this: As of this morning, things are still looking good for some exciting weather later this week!


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May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. -- Ed Abbey