29 November 2011

Wonking

NOTE: The images below update daily and therefore may not currently reflect the textual commentary... but they did when I wrote it on 29 Nov. 2011.

Weather on the way!  Probably.

What's likely headed our way is called a closed, or cut-off low which means it has been dropped out of the main current of the jetstream... these can be very hard to forecast.  In the image below, you can see the circular-shape and speckled cold clouds of our little, lost weather system wandering around in the middle of the ocean south of AK.


But other than the unpredictability of closed systems, everything else is in place for a fine batch of wintry weather later this week.

The five-day precipitable water forecast looks good for Tuesday through Sunday.

1.7 inches of water, with snowlevels below 5000 feet, could produce up to a foot and perhaps as much as foot and a half of snow, assuming the storm positions itself in just the right place over our region and the right conditions are in place...  The more southern route of our currently split jetstream looks like it's in an ideal place to carry the next batch of storms right over us.


The water vapor loop also looks interesting, too... every good storm needs a good moisture tap... and, in this live image, you can see our closed low parked out in the Pacific with a lots of nice puffy white water-filled clouds to tap into all around it... a hopeful scenario.


So, what's gonna happen?  I think it's probably going to snow.  When?  Beginning late Thursday or early Friday. How much?  That depends on timing, atmospheric conditions, and the position the low takes as it crosses the southwest.  But right now, several days out, things look like they're coming together nicely.

I'm hoping for a deep, cold dumper.  But I've been wrong before.  Sometimes it's wise to consult with the experts.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS BECOMING LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... WITH SEVERAL   INCHES POSSIBLE.